International and Foreign Law Committee (05/19/26)

Topic: Business As Unusual: Exporters Adapt to Renewed Shockwaves

Speaker: Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research, Allianz Trade

Description: The Middle East crisis illustrates how the global economy is increasingly shaped by geoeconomics, where energy, trade and capital are instruments of power rather than just efficiency. In our baseline, the shock remains contained, with oil prices averaging USD 90/bbl in 2026 and only a temporary inflation impact. But a prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, beyond summer, would turn the shock structural, pushing oil toward USD 130/ bbl and triggering a stagflationary environment with tighter financial conditions and sharp market repricing. More broadly, this episode highlights a new growth model: structurally higher volatility, more politically driven trade and capital flows, and inflation that is both higher and less predictable. In this environment, the key for companies is not only forecasting shocks, but building resilience to them.

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